Tuesday, November 19, 2019 | ePaper

Egypt's options dwindle as Nile talks break down

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Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, (centre), Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, left, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, right, hold hands after signing an agreement on sharing water from the Nile River, in Khartoum, Sudan.

AP, Cairo :
The latest breakdown in talks with Ethiopia over its construction of a massive upstream Nile dam has left Egypt with dwindling options as it seeks to protect the main source of freshwater for its large and growing population.
Talks collapsed earlier this month over the construction of the $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is around 70% complete and promises to provide much-needed electricity to Ethiopia's 100 million people.
But Egypt, with a population of around the same size, fears that the process of filling the reservoir behind the dam could slice into its share of the river, with catastrophic consequences. Pro-government media have cast it as a national security threat that could warrant military action.
Speaking at the U.N. last month, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said he would "never" allow Ethiopia to impose a "de facto situation" by filling the dam without an agreement.
"While we acknowledge Ethiopia's right to development, the water of the Nile is a question of life, a matter of existence to Egypt," he said.
Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewude, also speaking at the U.N. General Assembly, said her country believes "the use of the river should be (decided) according to international law and fair and equitable use of natural resources."
Egypt has been holding talks for years with Ethiopia and Sudan, upstream countries that have long complained about Cairo's overwhelming share of the river, which is enshrined in treaties dating back to the British colonial era. Those talks came to an acrimonious halt earlier this month, the third time they have broken down since 2014.
"We are fed up with Ethiopian procrastination. We will not spend our lifetime in useless talks," an Egyptian official told The Associated Press. "All options are on the table, but we prefer dialogue and political means."
Egypt has reached out to the United States, Russia, China and Europe, apparently hoping to reach a better deal through international mediation. The White House said earlier this month it supports talks to reach a sustainable agreement while "respecting each other's Nile water equities."
Mohamed el-Molla, an Egyptian Foreign Ministry official, said Cairo would take the dispute to the U.N. Security Council if the Ethiopians refuse international mediation.
That has angered Ethiopia, which wants to resolve the dispute through the tripartite talks.
An Ethiopian official said the packages offered by Cairo so far "were deliberately prepared to be unacceptable for Ethiopia."
"Now they are saying Ethiopia has rejected the offer, and calling for a third-party intervention," the official added. Both the Ethiopian and the Egyptian official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the talks with the media.
The main dispute is centered on the filling of the dam's 74-billion-cubic-meter reservoir. Ethiopia wants to fill it as soon as possible so it can generate over 6,400 Megawatts, a massive boost to the current production of 4,000 Megawatts.
That has the potential to sharply reduce the flow of the Blue Nile, the main tributary to the river, which is fed by annual rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands. If the filling takes place during one of the region's periodic droughts, its downstream impact could be even more severe.
Egypt has proposed no less than seven years for filling the reservoir, and for Ethiopia to adjust the pace according to rainfall, said an Egyptian Irrigation Ministry official who is a member of its negotiation team. The official also was not authorized to discuss the talks publicly and so spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Nile supplies more than 90% of Egypt's freshwater. Egyptians already have one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, at around 570 cubic meters per year, compared to a global average of 1,000. Ethiopians however have an average of 125 cubic meters per year.
Egypt wants to guarantee a minimum annual release of 40 billion cubic meters of water from the Blue Nile. The irrigation official said anything less could affect Egypt's own massive Aswan High Dam, with dire economic consequences.
"It could put millions of farmers out of work. We might lose more than one million jobs and $1.8 billion annually, as well as $300 million worth of electricity," he said.
The official said Ethiopia has agreed to guarantee just 31 billion cubic meters.
El-Sissi is set to meet with Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize, on Wednesday in the Russian city of Sochi, on the sidelines of a Russia-Africa summit. They may be able to revive talks, but the stakes get higher as the dam nears completion.
Ahmed told Ethiopian lawmakers on Tuesday that negotiations are the best chance for resolving the Nile deadlock and that going to war is "not in the best interest of all of us."
Ethiopia hopes to finish the much-delayed project by 2023. The dam's manager, Kifle Horro, said the project is now 68.5% complete and preparations are underway to finalize power generation from two turbines by next year.
The International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, warned earlier this year that the "risk of future clashes could be severe if the parties do not also reach agreement on a longer-term basin-wide river management framework."
In recent weeks there have been calls by some commentators in Egypt's pro-government media to resort to force.
Abdallah el-Senawy, a prominent columnist for the daily newspaper el-Shorouk, said the only alternatives were internationalizing the dispute or taking military action.
"Egypt is not a small county," he wrote in a Sunday column. "If all diplomatic and legal options fail, a military intervention might be obligatory."
Anwar el-Hawary, the former editor of the Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper, compared the dispute to the 1973 war with Israel, in which Egypt launched a surprise attack into the Sinai Peninsula.
"If we fought to liberate Sinai, it is logical to fight to liberate the water," he wrote on Facebook. "The danger is the same in the two cases. War is the last response."
In his remarks, Mwesige commended the Egyptian government for sustaining the fundamental relationship between both countries, adding that the support and brotherhood between Uganda and Egypt has enabled cooperation in military training, health, and welfare related programs, among others, adds the statement.
He said both countries have a common interest in protecting the source of River Nile since the lives and the future of people in Uganda and Egypt are hinged on its preservation.
"Since its inception, Uganda has enjoyed strong diplomatic and strategic relation with Egypt in different areas. It is therefore important for our countries to have a robust defence system for development and transformation," Mwesige emphasized.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia's Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister warned Tuesday that if there's a need to go to war over a dam project disputed with Egypt his country could ready millions of people, but he said only negotiation can resolve a current deadlock.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made the remarks during a parliament question-and-answer session, his most prominent public appearance since winning the Nobel on Oct. 11.
He also defended his win after some have debated whether he deserved it: "Some individuals are finding it hard to accept about the Nobel Peace Prize. It's already given to Abiy, and it won't be taken away from him. That's it! This is a dead issue! Now our focus should be on how to motivate other youths to win the prize. People who continue to dwell on this are wasting their time."
The 43-year-old, who was awarded the prize for sweeping political reforms and for making peace with longtime rival Eritrea after taking office last year, faced lawmakers' questions about a number of sensitive issues - notably the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Talks collapsed earlier this month over the construction of the $5 billion dam, the largest in Africa, which is around 70% complete and is expected to provide much-needed electricity to Ethiopia's 100 million people.
But Egypt, with a similar population, fears the Nile dam will reduce its share of the river and leave the country with dwindling options as it seeks to protect the main source of freshwater.
Pro-government media in Egypt have cast the issue as a national security threat that could warrant military action.
"Some say things about use of force (by Egypt). It should be underlined that no force could stop Ethiopia from building a dam," Ethiopia's prime minister said. "If there is a need to go to war, we could get millions readied. If some could fire a missile, others could use bombs. But that's not in the best interest of all of us."
Abiy stressed that his country is determined to finish the dam project, which was initiated by former leaders, "because it's an excellent one."
He is expected to meet with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi on Wednesday on the sidelines of a Russia-Africa summit in the Russian city of Sochi.
Posing another major challenge at home are Ethiopia's deadly ethnic tensions as people once stifled by repression now act on long-held grievances. Some 1,200 people have been killed and more than 1 million displaced in the greatest challenge yet to Abiy's rule.
Some observers warn that the unrest could grow ahead of next year's election in May.
Abiy told lawmakers he hopes the vote will take place according to schedule and that a flawless process is not the goal. He previously said the election would be free and fair.
"A record budget has been approved and the electoral body is set up by making it as independent as possible. There are some voices who are calling for its postponement but that's not convincing," the prime minister said, adding that a democratic process cannot be halted because electoral violence is feared.
"The government is ready to hand over power to anyone that comes out as a winner," Abiy said.
In response to questions about the ethnic violence raging across the East African nation, he said that "there are individuals and groups that are trying to stay relevant through the years by instigating violence among the public. The youth should wake up and face them."
He expressed his hope that the situation will calm down soon.
Mwesige noted that the recent visit by the Minister of State for Defence in charge of Veteran Affairs, Lt Col (Rtd) Bright Rwamirama to the department of Veteran Affairs in the Egyptian Armed Forces was very educational in terms of mapping out a strategy to support UPDF veterans.
Elmasry expressed sincere thanks and said that the brotherhood between the two countries and the signing of the MoU, will enhance the relationship between both countries in the field of military cooperation. He remarked that Egypt will continue with this relationship so as to ensure mutual benefit.

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